Bitcoin’s [BTC] latest decline has steadily reshaped market structure as more recent buyers slipped below their cost basis. When BTC fell from $76.6k to $72.9k, the total supply in loss rose from 7.75 million BTC to 8.33 million BTC.
This added roughly 580,000 BTC to underwater supply, indicating heavy accumulation occurred near local highs before momentum weakened.
As a result, psychological pressure continues building across short- and medium-term holders. Currently, $73k represents the average entry for 1–3 month holders and serves as the market’s first defensive line.
If this level fails, attention could quickly shift toward $69k, where 18-month to 2-year holders maintain their average cost basis.
Meanwhile, resistance has begun forming near $79k and then $84k, reflecting the cost bases of more recent cohorts. Any recovery attempt could encounter heavier selling as underwater holders seek breakeven exits.
However, if BTC successfully reclaims $79k, it would suggest demand is absorbing overhead supply, potentially easing pressure and improving sentiment across these trapped cohorts.
Negative Spot flows reinforce Bitcoin’s supply overhang
The pressure building across underwater holders is now spilling directly into Spot market behavior. Earlier, rising unrealized losses increased the risk of supply overhang.
Now, Spot Volume Delta remains firmly negative, confirming that many participants continue selling into available liquidity.
As BTC retreated from the low-$80k region toward $73k, aggressive sell orders consistently outweighed buyer activity.
This imbalance became increasingly visible through repeated negative delta readings, which frequently dropped below -$200 million and briefly approached -$600 million during February’s sharp decline.
Consequently, demand has struggled to absorb the steady supply entering the market. Although occasional buying bursts pushed the delta briefly positive near $100 million to $200 million, these recoveries lacked sustained follow-through.
As a result, relief rallies repeatedly stalled before establishing stronger upward momentum. Nevertheless, persistent selling pressure does not guarantee another breakdown. If buyers regain conviction and absorb overhead supply, Spot flows could gradually stabilize.
Until then, negative Spot Volume Delta suggests sellers retain control of liquidity, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to further consolidation and fragile recovery attempts.
Final Summary
