Key Takeaways
- Erdoğan Uses the Ankara NATO Summit as a Personal Triumph — Hosting the summit boosts the Turkish leader’s international stature at a time when he faces domestic economic crisis and is cracking down on opposition and civil society.
- Turkey’s Strategic Importance Gives It Leverage — As a middle power with the second-largest NATO army, advanced drones, and key geographic position, Turkey is becoming more indispensable to the alliance — even as it drifts toward authoritarian “Putinism.”
- NATO Faces a Values vs. Strategy Dilemma — While Turkey is a necessary partner for European security, Ukraine, and the Middle East, its authoritarian turn and rule-of-law violations are increasingly difficult for the alliance to overlook.
Analysis
The venue was chosen long ago as part of a rotation system among the 32 member states. However, the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, on July 7 and 8 nevertheless feels like a crowning achievement for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the “reis” — the “leader,” as his supporters call him — a formidable political figure who knows how to seize every opportunity.
Since joining NATO in 1952, Turkey has capitalized on its geopolitical position at the crossroads of three major crisis zones on Europe’s periphery: the post-Soviet space, the Balkans, and the Middle East. Since the end of the Cold War, Turkey has never been more indispensable, positioning itself readily as a mediator in various regional crises. However, Erdogan’s Turkey, which began EU accession negotiations in October 2005 after implementing significant democratic reforms that have since stalled, has never been more removed from the founding principles of the 27 and the North Atlantic Treaty. This is because the EU and NATO are not merely military organizations; they are also founded on shared values, foremost among them respect for the rule of law. This is how the difficult Turkish equation might be summarized.
Massive Crackdown on Turkish Civil Society
Much like Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, Turkey had already been an illiberal democracy for years, but it is now heading toward Turkish-style “Putinism,” which is both nationalist and religious. We must denounce this plebiscitary autocracy, which has docile opposition parties in parliament and allows for a few token spaces of freedom, that enables Western allies, particularly European ones, to turn a blind eye and accept Erdoğan into the fold. Over the past two weeks, authorities have carried out dozens of arrests across the country, targeting lawyers, political opponents, students, environmental activists, and journalists. The hugely popular comedian Deniz Göktas was arrested for a stand-up routine that was deemed insulting to the head of state. The routine has garnered well over nine million views in recent days.
The “reis’s” real international stature masks a weakening of his domestic political standing. Worn down by twenty-three years of unchallenged power, the Islamist leader and founder of the AKP (Justice and Development Party) has embarked on an authoritarian headlong rush against the backdrop of a social and economic crisis. Unemployment is skyrocketing, and inflation is at 30 percent. The massive crackdown on civil society and the cultural sector is accompanied by a relentless effort to bring the military, the judiciary, universities, much of the media, and major economic groups under direct control.
The main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), founded 102 years ago by Mustafa Kemal alongside the Republic, is now in the crosshairs and risks judicial supervision by a government-controlled judiciary. Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Greater Istanbul and the CHP’s leading figure and potential candidate for a future presidential election, had already been behind bars for a year on questionable corruption charges.
A Balance of Power in Ankara’s Favor
Turkey’s offer to defend Europe comes with a catch: an open rejection of the rule of law for domestic political reasons. The “Reis” refuses to accept any external criticism of his governance. Should NATO accept this price? There have been numerous crises between NATO and Turkey, most notably during the invasion of Northern Cyprus and the three military coups (1960, 1971, and 1980). These crises have always been resolved because Turkey needs NATO as much as the alliance needs Turkey strategically.
However, the balance of power is increasingly shifting in Ankara’s favor as Turkey skillfully navigates its position as a middle power. It is also unafraid to use force to protect its interests in the Caucasus, Libya, and the Aegean Sea. Turkey has the second-largest army in NATO and a highly capable defense industry that now ranks 11th in the world. This rise in power has taken place over the past decade thanks to the formidable Bayraktar TB2 drones. These inexpensive yet incredibly effective drones have been nicknamed “the Kalashnikov of the skies.” Notably, they helped Ukraine counter Russian aggression in the early stages of the conflict. Since then, Turkish-made weaponry has continued to improve.
More Turkish Influence into NATO
The Ankara summit, like the previous one in The Hague, is dominated by the issue of transatlantic relations, which have been severely strained since the billionaire returned to the White House. Of course, one shouldn’t take Donald Trump’s vengeful bluster at face value. He’s still upset that his allies didn’t support him in his war against Iran. However, the United States also benefits greatly from the alliance, including through the sale of its military equipment. Most European NATO member countries have acknowledged this and, at the previous summit, pledged to increase their defense spending to 3.5% of their GDP — and even 5% when infrastructure spending is included.
However, the time has come not just for “burden sharing,” but for “burden shifting.” This is ultimately inevitable, even if the scope and timeline of the U.S. withdrawal are still unclear. However, a NATO with less America means a NATO with more Turkey.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to insist that “European security is unthinkable without Turkey.” As recently as two years ago, French authorities viewed Turkey as a “strategic competitor” on par with Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Xi Jinping’s China. For several years, the two countries were in open rivalry in Libya, the Caucasus, and the Aegean Sea. Today, the European defense industries of the 27 are cooperating ever more closely with their Turkish counterparts. Gone, too, are the verbal spats with Emmanuel Macron. The two presidents frequently discuss the war in Ukraine and the Middle East. On July 7, Macron became the first Western head of state to visit Damascus and meet with his Syrian counterpart Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who is close to Ankara.
Erdoğan: Again, a Necessary Partner
Dealing with a Turkish leader consumed by hubris who is unpredictable and determined to act independently against a backdrop of nostalgia and neo-Ottoman ambitions is no easy task. This is especially true since the Anatolian autocrat enjoys strong support from his counterpart in the Oval Office. In fact, Donald Trump never ceases to extol his great friendship with Erdogan and arrived in Ankara with a gift that pleased him greatly—the U.S. will lift Turkey sanctions and consider selling F-35s, despite opposition from Congress. The two men have fairly similar views on the exercise of power and its perks. They both rely on an omnipresent family clan that unabashedly blurs the line between private interests and public funds.
However, necessity is the mother of invention. The new sultan is once again considered a necessary partner, even though he is not entirely trustworthy. This is evident in the Ukraine issue, where Turkey has played an active role in the “coalition of the willing” launched by Paris and London from the outset. This coalition comprises some 35 countries that have committed to providing security guarantees to Kyiv once the fighting has ceased. Turkey will lead the maritime component, and its headquarters will be based in Istanbul.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sees himself as indispensable in the Middle East. He has positioned himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause and has claimed deep ties to Hamas. Like the AKP, Hamas emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood movement. However, through outrageous remarks such as “Netanyahu has surpassed Hitler in barbarism,” Erdogan has cut himself off from participating in an international stabilization force in Gaza. Nevertheless, Turkey remains a significant regional power, the only other true military power alongside—or rather, in opposition to—Israel. Relations between the two U.S. allies have deteriorated significantly, despite the fact that Ankara was the first capital of a Muslim-majority state to recognize the Jewish state in 1949. Turkey’s NATO dilemma risks becoming increasingly complex.
