As my eyes grew as tired as my ears listening to Dan Orlovsky talk about how every team will win 11 games in 2026, I sat and predicted every game on the 2026 slate immediately following the schedule release. I then proceeded to lead Slippery Rock to a 103-7 win over NC State in my College Football 26 online dynasty as everyone else in the league shook in their boots like a sinner on judgement day.
Video game dominance aside, I take this exercise way too seriously and try to get it as accurate as possible. Obviously there will be some swings and misses, but life is about taking chances because we’re all going to die one day and so will everyone we love, so let’s do this.
AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals: 12-5 (3)
Now, this comes with the ever-growing caveat that Joe Burrow stays healthy. However, if he stubs his toe on the side of his bed and misses 11 games, this goes out the window. When Burrow is under center, though, the Bengals win and are unquestionably one of the three best offenses in football. The defensive additions of Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook should also make their defense at least look like an NFL defense rather than doing it best impression of the UMass Minutemen every week.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-6 (5)
It’s an endless cycle with how people outside of Pittsburgh cover the Steelers.
- Predict that they will lose 12 games (hello again, Mr. Orlovsky)
- They win 10 games
- They get better in the offseason
- Cycle repeats
The Steelers added the likes of Michael Pittman, Rico Dowdle, Jamel Dean, and Jaquan Brisker to their roster that won 10 games in 2025. Aaron Rodgers actually having a good group of pass-catchers to throw to, as well as a defense whose philosophies aren’t stuck in 1999 anymore will get Pittsburgh to 11 wins and the top wild card spot.
3. Baltimore Ravens: 10-7 (6)
If Lamar Jackson is healthy and able to actually run the ball, then Baltimore should be a playoff team. Admittedly, I don’t love their defense or their pass-catchers offensively. but a healthy Lamar has equaled playoff berths. We’ll see if Jesse Minter, Declan Doyle, and Anthony Weaver can get the job done in Year One.
4. Cleveland Browns: 5-12
Choosing between Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson is like Sophie’s Choice, but in reverse. They’re actually going to play one or both of these guys at quarterback, and it’s going to be like watching the Hindenburg disaster every Sunday – which, to be fair, I guess it’s been that bad for a while now. Bailey Zappe and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, anyone? They drafted well for the second straight year, but it won’t matter. They can still get a haul for Myles Garrett, and they absolutely should go that route.
AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills: 13-4 (2)
Everyone is concerned about the roster. The Bills’ roster stinks every year, and they consistently win 11, 12, 13 games. Now, if you want to say 13 is a little rich with the schedule they face, fine. But their offense will be better with D.J. Moore to complement James Cook in the run game. Defensively, they will be better under Jim Leonhard by default – go back watch that Broncos game where Sean McDermott made Bo Nix look like Steve Young. Last time I checked, the Bills still have Josh Allen – they’ll be fine. They face the same question they’ve faced for half a decade now – is this finally the year?
2. New England Patriots: 9-8
I spent all of 2025 saying that the schedule excuse is a bogus one to make against the Patriots. They didn’t just beat the bad teams they faced, they beat the hell out of them, and Drake Maye is a top 10 quarterback in the league. If they get A.J. Brown, maybe this number jumps up a game or two, but the Dianna Russini shaped cloud over the team is one that is gonna rain on them all season, and that’s a real distraction. That will play a much larger role in their Super Bowl hangover than the schedule they face.
3. New York Jets: 5-12
Geno Smith Part II: Electric Boogaloo. With Frank Reich calling the offense. Jesus wept. At least Breece Hall can wipe his tears with hundred-dollar bills when the offense ranks 29th in EPA.
4. Miami Dolphins: 2-15
Mark Duper and Mark Clayton at their current ages might give the Dolphins better production at receiver than their current receiving corps. There just aren’t any difference-makers on this team not named Devon Achane, who will join Hall in diving into a pile of gold coins like Scrooge McDuck after every 16-point loss.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans: 11-6 (4)
I don’t see the Texans’ offense being a top 10 unit, but it doesn’t have to be with the best defense in the NFL. They just have to be better than what we saw in the postseason, which isn’t a high bar as C.J. Stroud spent two weeks seeing how many time he could give the ball to the other team. Stroud will bounce back and the defense will do a lot of heavy lifting to get them their third AFC South title in four years.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-7 (7)
Boy am I hesitant to put the Jaguars in a playoff spot. Not because I dislike their offense – their offense is good. Trevor Lawrence had a career year in 2025, and that was with Brian Thomas missing time. They have a terrific trio of receivers, though I do wonder how big the loss of Travis Etienne will be. On the other side, I worry about the loss of Devin Lloyd, but overall they should be fine. My true worry lies in the front office with general manager James Gladstone drafting like he closed his eyes and was spun around before throwing a dart at a board.
3. Tennessee Titans: 7-10
I have a sneaky little feeling that I might pick Tennessee to be a wild card team in the 2.0 version of this exercise. I really love the offseason Tennessee has had. Cam Ward will be a real answer for them at quarterback, and they gave him Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson to throw to, as well as Nick Singleton in the backfield. Robert Saleh will turn around the defense immediately – yeah, just expect a higher number for Tennessee when I release the final edition of these predictions the week ahead of Week 1.
4. Indianapolis Colts: 6-11
Definitely don’t expect a higher number for the Colts. They imploded in the second half of the season and their genius plan to resolve that was by giving a quarterback who has been bad for 99 percent of his career and a ruptured achilles a $100 million contract. Not to mention, they gave Alec Pierce $114 million and he now makes more per year than Jaylen Waddle. Just a hilarious use of resources.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4 (1)
The Chiefs will get right back on the horse and win the division. Patrick Mahomes will be back by Week 1, and the return of Eric Bieniemy is going to be a massive boost to an offense that has lacked explosiveness. The Chiefs have never had a 1,000-yard rusher in the Mahomes era – Kenneth Walker will be a massive boost to that offense.
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 9-8
The Chargers are the reverse Steelers. They disappoint every year, and yet each offseason, a ton of my colleagues will go on their respective shows, podcasts, columns etc. and tell us to watch out for the Chargers. I’m supposed to care about Mike McDaniel being the offensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh, but I don’t think adding a weird dude alongside another weird dude cancels out. Their receiving corps is still mediocre and doesn’t feature an elite pass-catcher, and the loss of Jesse Minter on defense will be noticeable. There will still be plenty of people who pick them to win the division and make it to the Super Bowl, though, despite Justin Herbert peeing down his leg in every postseason game he’s ever played.
3. Denver Broncos: 7-10
Admittedly, I’ve been down on Denver in each of the last two years and was proven incorrect, but I will remain adamant that I wasn’t wrong, I was just early. They won 11 one-score games in 2025 – that will almost certainly revert to the mean and give them a handful of more losses. Sean Payton is also not calling plays, I’m curious to see how long that lasts before he is blaming everything on Davis Webb. This also boils down to just not believing in Bo Nix. He led the NFL in passing attempts in 2025 and still couldn’t top 4,000 yards. He was 28th in yards per attempt, and among 47 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays, he was 32nd in success rate. He’s just a guy. The Broncos’ success goes through its defense, and that’s not a sustainable way to consistently win north of 10 games over an extended period of time.
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11
The Raiders are taking the right steps forward. Klint Kubiak was a good hire at head coach, and signing Kirk Cousins to pave the way for Fernando Mendoza was a perfect a bridge that they could have built. They still need receivers, though, as well as more difference-makers on defense.
AFC Playoffs
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Buffalo Bills
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Houston Texans
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Baltimore Ravens
- Jacksonville Jaguars
NFC North
1. Detroit Lions: 12-5 (2)
The Lions will bounce back after a down year in 2025. Switching play-callers midseason and dealing with a litany of injuries, once again, was never going to end well. Drew Petzing should do the offense a lot of good, and Jared Goff and Co. should be one of the most dangerous units in the league, once again.
2. Green Bay Packers: 10-7 (7)
Keeping up with tradition, the Packers clinch the No. 7 seed for the fourth consecutive season. If Micah Parsons is able to have a strong comeback season and wreak havoc the way he did at the start of 2025, Green Bay’s defense will be one of the better units in the league. They just need more consistency and explosiveness from the offense.
3. Chicago Bears: 9-8
Like the Broncos, the Bears won a lot of one-score games in 2025, totaling eight across the regular season and playoffs. They also lost five key defensive contributors from a season ago, which gives me a lot of drawback about what their ceiling could be. I believe in Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, but the defense keeps me from buying in to consecutive playoff appearances for Chicago while facing the league’s toughest schedule.
4. Minnesota Vikings: 8-9
Color me skeptical on Kyler Murray, and on the whole facade that it’s a real competition between Murray and J.J. McCarthy. Whomever the quarterback is, they have the worst one in the division. They’ll be competitive because Kevin O’Connell is a good coach and their defense should still be top 10 in the league, but this isn’t going to be a playoff team.
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys: 11-6 (3)
The Cowboys have one of the most high-flying offenses in the league with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens. The offense wasn’t their issue in 2025, though, it was their secondary that gave up the most deep touchdowns in the NFL. However, adding Caleb Downs and Jalen Thompson, and Cobie Durant will drastically improve a defense that ranked 30th in EPA per dropback and help Dallas win the division.
2. Washington Commanders: 10-7 (5)
The Commanders needed to make a lot of changes to their defense – and to their credit, they did. Washington added the likes of Odafe Oweh, Leo Chenal, Nick Cross, Tim Settle, Amik Robertson, and K’Lavon Chaisson to a defense that was 31st in EPA per play in 2025. Getting younger and more athletic on that side of the ball, combined with a healthy Jayden Daniels and David Blough calling the plays offensively, Washington bounces back and lands the top wild card spot.
3. New York Giants: 10-7 (6)
The Giants now have the best head coach in the division after hiring John Harbaugh, and that goes a long way. With one of the best young defenses in the league on paper, and an offense flooded with young talent, the Giants have the opportunity to make a statement in Year One of the Harbaugh era. It’s also important to point out that despite the injuries in 2025, New York was 10th in EPA per play in 2025. This is a team on the rise, and as long as Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers, and Cam Skattebo stay healthy, they’ll be a playoff team.
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-9
The talent is absolutely there for the Eagles, but this isn’t about talent. It’s about all the noise that has followed them over the last year and it finally catching up to them on the field. The A.J. Brown saga likely ending in a trade, Jalen Hurts taking a legitimate step back, Kevin Patullo being the fall guy and being replaced by a first-time play-caller, and Nick Sirianni being on a proverbial hot seat, it will all boil over in 2026 and lead to a down year for the Eagles.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints: 9-8 (4)
The Saints may be my biggest pet team of 2026. Their offseason was tremendous, adding Travis Etienne and Jordyn Tyson to their offense to aid young quarterback Tyler Shough. Considering how well Shough and the Saints played in the final month of 2025, they carry over that momentum with several roster upgrades and win the NFC South.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-10
There is just too much inconsistency on this roster. Baker Mayfield could like Joe Montana one week and then Brodie Croyle the next. Emeka Egbuka started the season as hot as any receiver in the NFL and then disappeared in the second half of the year. In Weeks 1-8, their defense was third in EPA per play, and then dipped to 28th in Weeks 9-18. We’ve seen the peak of this particular era of the Buccaneers.
3. Atlanta Falcons: 6-11
I have zero faith in Tua Tagovailoa. Granted, he’ll be inside and/or in hot weather for approximately 4/5 of his games this year, which is the only environment he’s ever played well in, so there is a world where Atlanta wins a lot of games and every show does the whole “IS TUA BACK?!” thing, and that is a world none of us should want to live in. Atlanta has a great collection of offensive talent, but I just can’t buy into the quarterback.
4. Carolina Panthers: 3-14
*Cracks knuckles*
Alright, so when I put this out on Twitter, you would have thought I yelled at a dog. Everyone and their favorite film bro raced to the defense of a Panthers team that won eight games in 2025. Their offense was 26th in EPA per play and their defense was 23rd. Outside of Tet McMillan, there is no blue-chip talent on their offense, and even then, he isn’t on the level of the elite receivers in the NFL. They lost Rico Dowdle, so Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks will be their one-two punch at running back, and it appears Jalen Coker is this year’s Greg Dortch in the way that everyone will put the eyeball emoji next to his name over the next several months when he would be a No. 3 or No. 4 in any good receiving corps. Defensively, I like the addition of Devin Lloyd, but they also severely overpaid Jaelan Phillips.
To put a bow on it all, Bryce Young isn’t a franchise quarterback. Last season was probably as good as it will get, and he was 31st in adjusted EPA per play and 27th in success rate. If you want to argue that three wins is too little, then fine. But the absolute cap on this team is a 6-11 season and pursuing a new quarterback in 2027.
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams: 13-4 (1)
The Rams were the best team in the league a year ago, and they got better. Adding Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to a secondary that needed upgrading addressed their biggest need on the roster. The offense will remain as dangerous as any in the league with reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams all returning. They’ll win the division and be the No. 1 seed.
2. Seattle Seahawks: 9-8
We saw what losing a stud offensive coordinator did to the Lions in 2025 – they went from 15 wins to nine and missed the postseason – I see the same thing happening to the Seahawks. Losing Klint Kubiak will prove to be huge and the offense will have its struggles because of it. Not to mention Kenneth Walker, Riq Woolen, Boye Mafe, and Coby Bryant all left in free agency. Seattle certainly won’t be a bad team, but a step back is expected – and yes, both Super Bowl teams miss the postseason in 2026.
3. San Francisco 49ers: 8-9
The 49ers were third in the NFL with 200 total points missed via injury, per Sports Info Solutions. And while they weathered that storm, they have consistently been amongst the NFL’s most injured teams over the last decade. With all of their top players north of 30 years of age going into the season, I simply cannot bet on them to stay healthy. Obviously, no one hopes for injuries, but it’s expected at this point with the 49ers. If you say that’s unfair, I hear you – because if they stay healthy, they’ll almost certainly be a playoff team. But with the injury history and the age of their top players, I can’t bank on that.
4. Arizona Cardinals: 3-14
Jacoby Brissett saying he wants more money leading a quarterback room with Garnder Minshew and Carson Beck. This could potentially end up being a bottom 10 quarterback room ever. The talent elsewhere is rendered moot when whomever is under center makes no positive difference. There are some young pieces to like on both sides of the ball, but with a first-time head coach and poor quarterback room, Arizona will be in No. 1 pick territory.
