The last time the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t win the NL West Division was 2021, the year after winning the World Series. The Dodgers have now won the last two World Series, and they’ve backfilled their roster churn by upgrading to star players through free agency and their own stellar farm system.
The lengthy MLB season provides a sample size that’s meant to favor averages over abnormalities. Hot- and cold-streaks blend together as weeks become months. But the weight of those games can also fall victim to entropy as months become years. The long summers are tests of endurance and commitment as much as talent. The San Diego Padres finished just three games behind the Dodgers in the 2025 division race, and the Toronto Blue Jays pushed them to seven games and extra innings last November.
The thin line between dynasty and disappointment will be carved out over the next 120 games. FanDuel has odds on the NL West Division winner, which is an opportunity to prognosticate on the predictive ability of the first 40 games, and which performances will propel their team to a division title.
The Dodgers (-900) are heavy favorites to remain atop the division, with a deep roster that’s built to weather a long season. But their offense is still struggling midway through May. Shohei Ohtani is enduring his first cold streak, going hitless between starting pitching assignments for the first time in his career. Andy Pages (9 HRs, 35 RBI) and Max Muncy (11 HRs, .917 OPS) have been pacing an offense that’s welcoming back Mookie Betts this week. They’ve been able to afford patience with their bats because Ohtani, Justin Wrobleski, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are anchoring an elite starting rotation.
The Padres (+800) have caught the Dodgers in the standings despite a slow start from their offense, ranking 25th in wRC+. Michael King (2.76 ERA) and Randy Vasquez (3.05 ERA) have held together a starting rotation that suffered key injuries early, including to projected Opening Day starter Nick Pivetti. Xander Bogaerts has kept the offense afloat while Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill are working back to their expected averages.
The Diamondbacks (+3000) have had a slow start, but the betting lines still see potential in their young talent that made a run to the World Series in 2023. Corbin Carroll is building back up to his all-world production after a broken hand, and they recently promoted top prospect Ryan Waldschmidt. It’s not any of the young guys but 34-year-old Ildemaro Vargas who’s been leading the offense thus far, posting a .331 average with 7 HRs and 28 RBI.
The Giants (+5000) have a top-10 payroll and a brand new manager getting his first taste of the MLB. Rafael Devers has been a disappointment, but Luis Arraez has been a bright spot, along with Landen Roupp and Logan Webb on the mound.
The Rockies (+30000) are just 9 games back from first place now, but the lines expect that number to grow closer toward last season’s line, when they finished 50 games back.
