TV has long been an industry based on eyeballs. Now media companies are winking more at feet.
Fox Corp. is the backer of some of TV’s most-watched programs including Sunday-afternoon NFL games and “The Masked Singer.” Earlier this week, however, it released a report touting not the number of people who see its shows, but rather the fact that ad campaigns from certain fast-food chains seen by viewers on its broadcast network drove foot traffic to restaurants by 81% over audiences who did not. The data comes from a Fox home brew of more than 20 different sources that gauge consumer activity and response, and there is some expectation on the part of big media companies that proof of what are being called “outcomes” – actions taken as the result of having been exposed to ads — may become a bigger part of ongoing discussions between Big TV and Madison Avenue.
“In the future, we need to start really leaning in on how well we perform from an outcomes perspective, versus just measuring impressions,” says Kym Frank, senior vice president of ad sales research for Fox Corp., during a recent interview.
Will TV back away from the TV ratings upon which it has relied for decades? In conversations taking place across the industry, executives say they hope that the idea will succeed. Some talks will grow more earnest over the next few weeks, as TV networks and streamers try to sell billions in advertising during the sector’s annual “upfront” market, which kicks off Monday with the first of a series of glitzy presentations to advertising agencies and would-be sponsors.
“I feel like that’s the next wave,” says Bobby Voltaggio, president of U.S. ad sales, platform monetization, at Warner Bros. Discovery, who adds; “Impressions remain important, but maybe not as much as they were in the past.” He envisions a new system shaping up within two to three years that puts new emphasis on connecting ads to business results. A survey of 300 industry executives by iSpot, one of the measurement companies hoping to make more of a business in tracking outcomes, found 53% of respondents cited them as the most critical measurement standard, while only 9% thought measurement of individual programs was.
Much of the prevailing sentiment has been spurred by years of growing frustration with current measurement of TV audiences. For decades, billions of dollars in advertising have been transacted on Nielsen ratings that tabulate how many people saw a TV program or commercial, and, also on how many people of a certain age or gender did as well.
Hollywood’s recent streaming wars, however, have cast all kinds of doubts on the value of such totals. More people watch their favorite dramas, comedies, movies and reality shows at times of their own choosing — only sports and some live events seem able to buck the trend — and new technology gives advertisers the ability to place commercials according to finer characteristics, like geographic location, income, or likely interest in a product such as box of diapers or a new car. Suddenly, big audiences are harder to come by, and advertisers instead must work harder to persuade individual viewers during personal binge sessions.
Besides, a new generation of advertisers at home with digital media are more interested in response rates, website visits and requests for more information. These are things that can be tracked more easily online, as opposed to the old-school TV set that once stood at the center of most families’ living rooms. One advertiser might want to drive visits to a car showroom, while another might want to send out a brochure about travel to a new theme park or hotel. A third could seek to sell tickets to the opening weekend of a new movie.
“I think the conversation is shifting from who saw an ad to what happens afterwards,” says Alan Moss, vice president of global sales for Amazon Ads. “It’s really about engagement. It’s about results. And agencies are increasingly focused on how they connect those spots to real outcomes.”
TV companies have been working on this stuff for years. In 2017, the former Discovery Communications joined with Fox News, the former A + E Networks, the former AMC Networks, the former CBS Corp., and Disney ABC Television (the corporate name changers show how quickly the industry has been scrambled by streaming and new technology) to pursue a trial of new technology that sought to tie exposure to video ads to an actual customer action. The project was code-named “Thor,” and TV executives hoped to gain credit for delivering customers to restaurant and car-dealer showrooms. Since that time, A&E, Paramount and others have unveiled their own efforts to connect views of ads to making the sponsor’s cash register ring.
Some work has been hard to miss. In 2024, Fox and Netflix agreed on a deal that examined how much social-media activity was generated by a two-minute segment during one of the network’s Sunday-afternoon football telecasts that featured director Zack Snyder and augmented-reality scenes from the streamer’s movie “Rebel Moon.”
Like everything having to do with measuring media audiences, change won’t happen at the click of a mouse. “Outcomes are subjective,” says one media buying executive. “What an outcome is for one ad is different from another one.” Some media companies might like to use them more because doing so might prop up prices that have begun to sag as traditional Nielsen ratings erode. “Do outcomes come up more? Absolutely,” this executive says., “Do I think it will drive tons of incremental spending? I don’t think so.”
TV executives agree that they must come up with concepts that can work across the industry. “Obviously, we’re not going to work with an auto and sell a car. Right? But we can work with an auto, and drive feet to the lot. We can work with a QSR and drive limited time offers, sales for them at the geographic level,” says Evan Adlman, executive vice president of commercial sales and revenue operations for AMC Global Media.
One measurement company that provides third-party data for most media audiences and is backed by industry standards is already keeping tabs on “outcomes.” It’s Nielsen.
The company already offers measurement of outcomes and has been working to incorporate those efforts into Nielsen One, the system currently used to determine viewership of TV programs across linear and digital screens. Executives at Nielsen don’t see TV ratings going away, however, because impressions remain an apples-to-apples way of comparing one TV or streaming program to another. Because different advertisers set a variety of business goals for themselves, using outcomes only would give rise to a chaotic scenario in which one show must compete for foot traffic, ticket sales, coupon orders and more, depending on what the sponsor demanded. Such terrain seems impossible to conquer.
Of course, the company’s TV ratings generate millions each year from Nielsen clients, which include Netflix, Roku, Amazon, NBC and Fox. The company may have less impetus to shake up the current infrastructure, however, than the video companies do.
The industry must work harder to make outcomes stick. “We’re all trying to make our own way. But in the future, we kind of have to all do this together. We can’t have measurement in a vacuum. That is not a currency,” says Fox’s Frank. “So if outcomes become the currency, we have to kind of all row in the same direction.”
